SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports Q3 earnings Tuesday after market close with a webcast on X; Tesla reports the next day. Consensus expects revenue of $12.89B, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62B, and adjusted EPS of $0.15, marking 65% growth from Q2 and the first profitable quarter since IPO. Analysts forecast $6.4B from AI, $4.9B from Starlink with 14.3M subscribers, capex of $19.6B, and negative free cash flow of $11.6B.

Starship Flight 14 reached orbit, SpaceX agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8B for Starlink Mobile, and a fourth compute hosting deal worth $13B annually from December targets over 2GW of compute and a $100B annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI says the quarter may be judged on those targets. Barclays expects an all-stock merger with SpaceX buying Tesla at a premium based on $2.1T and $1.5T valuations, needing announcement by late October or early November for a December 6 vote. Musk would hold ~37% of the combined company and 56% of votes. A strong quarter and moderated spending would ease a share exchange; heavy capex and a declining stock would hinder it.

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SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching — Teslarati